MY DEAR FRIEND: We are here in the midst of a second winter; the cold is
more severe, and the snow deeper, than they were in the first. I presume,
your weather in Germany is not much more gentle and, therefore, I hope
that you are quietly and warmly fixed at some good town: and will not
risk a second burial in the snow, after your late fortunate resurrection
out of it. Your letters, I suppose, have not been able to make their way
through the ice; for I have received none from you since that of the 12th
of February, from Ratisbon. I am the more uneasy at this state of
ignorance, because I fear that you may have found some subsequent
inconveniences from your overturn, which you might not be aware of at
first.
The curtain of the political theatre was partly drawn up the day before
yesterday, and exhibited a scene which the public in general did not
expect; the Duke of Newcastle was declared First Lord Commissioner of the
Treasury, Mr. Fox Secretary of State in his room, and Mr. Henry Legge
Chancellor of the Exchequer: The employments of Treasurer of the Navy,
and Secretary at War, supposed to be vacant by the promotion of Mr. Fox
and Mr. Legge, were to be kept ‘in petto’ till the dissolution of this
parliament, which will probably be next week, to avoid the expense and
trouble of unnecessary re-elections; but it was generally supposed that
Colonel Yorke, of The Hague, was to succeed Mr. Fox; and George
Greenville, Mr. Legge. This scheme, had it taken place, you are, I
believe aware, was more a temporary expedient, for securing the elections
of the new parliament, and forming it, at its first meeting, to the
interests and the inclinations of the Duke of Newcastle and the
Chancellor, than a plan of administration either intended or wished to be
permanent. This scheme was disturbed yesterday: Mr. Fox, who had sullenly
accepted the seals the day before, more sullenly refused them yesterday.
His object was to be First Commissioner of the Treasury, and Chancellor
of the Exchequer, and consequently to have a share in the election of the
new parliament, and a much greater in the management of it when chosen.
This necessary consequence of his view defeated it; and the Duke of
Newcastle and the Chancellor chose to kick him upstairs into the
Secretaryship of State, rather than trust him with either the election or
the management of the new parliament. In this, considering their
respective situations, they certainly acted wisely; but whether Mr. Fox
has done so, or not, in refusing the seals, is a point which I cannot
determine. If he is, as I presume he is, animated with revenge, and I
believe would not be over scrupulous in the means of gratifying it, I
should have thought he could have done it better, as Secretary of State,
with constant admission into the closet, than as a private man at the
head of an opposition. But I see all these things at too great a distance
to be able to judge soundly of them. The true springs and motives of
political measures are confined within a very narrow circle, and known to
a very few; the good reasons alleged are seldom the true ones: The public
commonly judges, or rather guesses, wrong, and I am now one of that
public. I therefore recommend to you a prudent Pyrrhonism in all matters
of state, until you become one of the wheels of them yourself, and
consequently acquainted with the general motion, at least, of the others;
for as to all the minute and secret springs, that contribute more or less
to the whole machine, no man living ever knows them all, not even he who
has the principal direction of it. As in the human body, there are
innumerable little vessels and glands that have a good deal to do, and
yet escape the knowledge of the most skillful anatomist; he will know
more, indeed, than those who only see the exterior of our bodies, but he
will never know all. This bustle, and these changes at court, far from
having disturbed the quiet and security of your election, have, if
possible, rather confirmed them; for the Duke of Newcastle (I must do him
justice) has, in, the kindest manner imaginable to you, wrote a letter to
Mr. Eliot, to recommend to him the utmost care of your election.
Though the plan of administration is thus unsettled, mine, for my travels
this summer, is finally settled; and I now communicate it to you that you
may form your own upon it. I propose being at Spa on the 10th or 12th of
May, and staying there till the 10th of July. As there will be no mortal
there during my stay, it would be both unpleasant and unprofitable to you
to be shut up tete-a-fete with me the whole time; I should therefore
think it best for you not to come to me there till the last week in June.
In the meantime, I suppose, that by the middle of April, you will think
that you have had enough of Manheim, Munich, or Ratisbon, and that
district. Where would you choose to go then? For I leave you absolutely
your choice. Would you go to Dresden for a month or six weeks? That is a
good deal out of your way, and I am not sure that Sir Charles will be
there by that time. Or would you rather take Bonn in your way, and pass
the time till we meet at The Hague? From Manheim you may have a great
many good letters of recommendation to the court of Bonn; which court,
and it’s Elector, in one light or another, are worth your seeing.
From thence, your journey to The Hague will be but a short one; and you
would arrive there at that season of the year when The Hague is, in my
mind, the most agreeable, smiling scene in Europe; and from The Hague you
would have but three very easy days journey to me at Spa. Do as you like;
for, as I told you before, ‘Ella e assolutamente padrone’. But lest you
should answer that you desire to be determined by me, I will eventually
tell you my opinion. I am rather inclined to the latter plan; I mean that
of your coming to Bonn, staying there according as you like it, and then
passing the remainder of your time, that is May and June, at The Hague.
Our connection and transactions with the Republic of the United
Provinces are such, that you cannot be too well acquainted with that
constitution, and with those people. You have established good
acquaintances there, and you have been ‘fetoie’ round by the foreign
ministers; so that you will be there ‘en pais connu’. Moreover, you have
not seen the Stadtholder, the ‘Gouvernante’, nor the court there, which
‘a bon compte’ should be seen. Upon the whole, then, you cannot, in my
opinion, pass the months of May and June more agreeably, or more
usefully, than at The Hague. But, however, if you have any other, plan
that you like better, pursue it: Only let me know what you intend to do,
and I shall most cheerfully agree to it.
The parliament will be dissolved in about ten days, and the writs for the
election of the new one issued out immediately afterward; so that, by the
end of next month, you may depend upon being ‘Membre de la chambre
basse’; a title that sounds high in foreign countries, and perhaps higher
than it deserves. I hope you will add a better title to it in your own, I
mean that of a good speaker in parliament: you have, I am sure, all, the
materials necessary for it, if you will but put them together and adorn
them. I spoke in parliament the first month I was in it, and a month
before I was of age; and from the day I was elected, till the day that I
spoke. I am sure I thought nor dreamed of nothing but speaking. The first
time, to say the truth, I spoke very indifferently as to the matter; but
it passed tolerably, in favor of the spirit with which I uttered it, and
the words in which I had dressed it. I improved by degrees, till at last
it did tolerably well. The House, it must be owned, is always extremely
indulgent to the two or three first attempts of a young speaker; and if
they find any degree of common sense in what he says, they make great
allowances for his inexperience, and for the concern which they suppose
him to be under. I experienced that indulgence; for had I not been a
young member, I should certainly have been, as I own I deserved,
reprimanded by the House for some strong and indiscreet things that I
said. Adieu! It is indeed high time.