"NORWICH, CONN., _Nov. 9th_, (_1875_).
"MY DEAR MR. TILDEN,--I return herewith answers to all your list of
questions, so far as I am able. It is not easy to give definite answers
to all, especially in relation to aggregate national wealth, income,
and savings.
"I do not believe it judicious for you, in your message, to enter in
any degree into the field of economic controversy. The masses won't
comprehend, and the doctrinaires will fight you. Stick to the great
principles, and do not commit yourself against contraction. I have
thought a good deal over our conversation of last week, and I am more
and more convinced there is no other practical way out of our financial
difficulties. 'All roads lead to Rome,' and all roads to resumption
involve contraction at some stage if they lead where they pretend to.
"Very Truly Yours,
"DAVID A. WELLS."
"QUESTIONS
"'1. What, at a given period, was the population of
England, France, United States?
"'2. What is the best estimate of their aggregate capital
at such period?
"'3. Their annual gross income or earnings?
"'4. Their annual income from foreign government?
"'5. Their annual outgo to pay interest on foreign
debts?
"'6. Their annual net savings or accumulation?
"'7. Their exports?
" imports?
"'8. Production of gold and silver in United States for
each of five years?
"'Exports and imports of gold and silver during same
period?
"ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS.
"NO. 1. POPULATION.
From 1872. France (exclusive of Alsace and Lorraine) 36,102,920
" " Great Britain 31,835,000
" 1870. United States (Census) 38,115,641
" 1872. " " (Estimated) 40,000,000
"NO. 2. AGGREGATE CAPITAL.
"_United States._--The valuation of the property of the U. S. by the
census of 1870 was (in currency) $30,068,000,000. The returned assessed
valuation for the same year was less than one-half, or $14,178,000,000.
The census counted as property, both property and the evidence of debt
secured on such property. I do not think the productive capital of the
United States in excess of $25,000,000,000.
"_Great Britain._--Baxter, in 1867-8, estimated, from accepted data,
the aggregate value of the real and personal property of the United
Kingdom at 6,000,000,000 _pounds_, or 30,000,000,000 dollars. I should
put it for 1872 as high as _seven_, possibly _eight_, thousand million
pounds.
"_France._--I know of no estimate of the aggregate value of property in
France. I find several recent French writers, who incidentally refer to
it, as less than that of Great Britain.
"NO. 3 AND 5. ANNUAL GROSS AND NET INCOME ON SAVINGS.
"Baxter estimates, for 1867-8, the annual gross income of the United
Kingdom as 814,000,000, or $4,070,000,000; and the _net_ at about
600,000,000, or $3,000,000,000. This last constitutes the fund out of
which the nation feeds and clothes itself, pays taxes, and repairs
and saves. I should estimate the gross income of Great Britain for
1872-4 at full 1,000,000,000, and the net at 800,000,000. There are no
reliable data for estimating annual savings, constituting new capital.
_Ten_ per cent., which is a high estimate, in my judgment, would give
80,000,000, or $400,000,000; and yet these figures are not consistent
with the recent returns of the Board of Trade, respecting the income
from British foreign investments.
"_France._--Victor Bonnet asserts that the data are certain
that France before the war of 1870 saved annually as much as
$400,000,000--2,000,000,000 francs; and thinks that the present saving
is about $600,000,000. He quotes Sir Robert Peel, approvingly, to the
effect that France, with equal revenues, saves more than Great Britain.
"_United States._--Greater natural resources here give a greater gross
and net income, with equal labor. I am inclined to put our gross income
between $6 and $7,000,000,000. I do not believe our annual saving,
in prosperous years, in excess of _five_ per cent., or from $300 to
$400,000,000.
"4. ANNUAL INCOME FROM FOREIGN INVESTMENTS.
"_Great Britain._--A late number of the London _Economist_ puts
80,000,000, or $400,000,000, as the minimum paid Great Britain by
foreign countries for interest on capital invested abroad, and _for
freights and commissions_. The last year, I should think, represented
full _one-third_.
"_France._--The estimate of revenue derived by France from industrial
enterprises in foreign countries and foreign loans, from 1873-4, is
about 260,000,000 francs, $52,000,000.
"_United States._--Nothing.
"5. ANNUAL OUTGO TO PAY INTEREST ON FOREIGN DEBTS.
"_Great Britain._--Nothing.
"_France._--An inconsiderable amount, probably not in excess of 12 to
15 millions of dollars.
"_United States._--Not less than _one hundred millions_ of dollars.
Probably more than less.
"7. EXPORTS AND IMPORTS.
_United States_ 1872-3 Exports $677,000,000, Currency.
1873-4 " 716,000,000, "
1872-3 Imports 649,000,000, Gold.
1873-4 " 693,000,000, "
_Great Britain_ 1872-3 Exports £311,000,000, $1,555,000,000
1873-4 " 297,000,000, or 1,985,000,000
1872-3 Imports 371,000,000 --------------
1873-4 " 370,000,000 --------------
_France_ 1872. Exports 3,679,000,000 francs, $735,000,000
" Imports 3,447,000,000 francs, $689,000,000
"8. BULLION PRODUCT OF THE UNITED STATES FOR EACH OF FIVE YEARS.
"The present product of gold and silver, or rather the product for
1873 and 1874, is estimated by the director of the Mint in his last
report at $70,000,000 per annum. For the five years, from 1871 to 1876
inclusive, an average of $60,000,000 per annum would probably be about
correct.
"9. EXPORTS OF GOLD AND BULLION FOR FOUR YEARS.
Exports 1870 $43,882,000
" 1871 83,400,000
" 1872 72,727,000
" 1873 73,417,000
Imports 1870 26,417,000
" 1871 21,268,000
" 1872 13,742,000
" 1873 21,478,000