Chapter 11_Giant brains; or, Machines that think

THE FUTURE:

MACHINES THAT THINK, AND WHAT THEY MIGHT DO FOR MEN

The pen is mightier than the sword, it is often said. And if this is

true, then the pen with a motor may be mightier than the sword with a

motor.

In the Middle Ages, there were few kinds of weapons, and it was easy

for a man to protect himself against most of them by wearing armor.

As gunpowder came into use, a man could no longer carry the weight of

armor that would protect him, and so armor was given up. But in 1917,

armor, equipped with a motor and carrying the man and his weapons, came

back into service—as the tank.

In much the same way, in the Middle Ages, there were few books, and it

was easy for a man to handle nearly all the information that was in

books. As the printing press came into use, man’s brain could no longer

handle all recorded information, and the effort to do so was given

up. But in 1944, a brain to handle information, equipped with a motor

and supporting the man and his reasoning, came into existence—as the

sequence-controlled calculator.

In previous chapters we have examined some of the giant mechanical

brains that have been finished; we have also considered the design

of such machines. Now in this chapter we shall discuss the future

significance of machines that think, of motorized information. We shall

discuss what we can foresee if we look with imagination into the future.

There are two questions we need to ask: What types of machines that

think can we foresee? What types of problems to be solved by these

machines can we foresee?

FUTURE TYPES OF MACHINES THAT THINK

The machines that already exist show that some processes of thinking

can already be performed very quickly:

Calculating: adding, subtracting,...

Reasoning: comparing, selecting,...

Referring: looking up information in lists,...

We can expect other processes of thinking to come up to high speed

through the further development of thinking machines.

Automatic Address Book

Nowadays when we wish to send out announcements of an event, like going

to South America for a year, we may copy the addresses of our friends

onto the envelopes by hand. In the future, we can see our address book

as a spool of magnetic tape. When we wish to send out announcements,

we put a stack of blank envelopes into the machine that will read the

magnetic tape, and we press a button. Out will come the envelopes

addressed.

If we wish to select only those friends of ours whose last names we put

down on a list, we can write the list on another magnetic tape, place

it also in the machine, and set a few switches. Then the machine will

read the names on the list, find their addresses in the address-book

tape, and prepare only the envelopes we want. If a friend’s address

changes, we can notify the machine. It will find his old address, erase

it, and enter the new address.

Automatic Library

We can foresee the development of machinery that will make it possible

to consult information in a library automatically. Suppose that you

go into the library of the future and wish to look up ways for making

biscuits. You will be able to dial into the catalogue machine “making

biscuits.” There will be a flutter of movie film in the machine. Soon

it will stop, and, in front of you on the screen, will be projected

the part of the catalogue which shows the names of three or four books

containing recipes for biscuits. If you are satisfied, you will press

a button; a copy of what you saw will be made for you and come out of

the machine.

After further development, all the pages of all books will be available

by machine. Then, when you press the right button, you will be able to

get from the machine a copy of the exact recipe for biscuits that you

choose.

We are not yet at the end of foreseeable development. There will be

a third stage. You will then have in your home an automatic cooking

machine operated by program tapes. You will stock it with various

supplies, and it will put together and cook whatever dishes you desire.

Then, what you will need from the library will be a program or routine

on magnetic tape to control your automatic cook. And the library,

instead of producing a pictorial copy of the recipe for you to read and

apply, will produce a routine on magnetic tape for controlling your

cooking machine so that you will actually get excellent biscuits!

Of course, you may have other kinds of automatic producing machinery in

your home or office. The furnishing of routines to control automatic

machinery will become a business of importance.

Automatic Translator

Another machine that we can foresee would be used for translating from

one language to any other. We can call it an _automatic translator_.

Suppose that you want to say “How much?” in Swedish. You dial into the

machine “How much?” and press the button “Swedish,” and the machine

will promptly write out “Hur mycket?” for you. It also will pronounce

it, if you wish, for there would be little difficulty in recording on

magnetic tape the pronunciation of the word as spoken by a good speaker

of the language. The machine could be set to repeat the pronunciation

several times so that the student could really learn the sound. He

could learn it better, probably, by hearing it and trying to say it

than he could by using any set of written symbols.

Automatic Typist

We now come to a possible machine that uses a new principle. This

principle is that of being able to _recognize_ signs. This machine

would perceive writing on a piece of paper and recognize that all the

_a_’s that appear on the paper are cases of _a_, and that all the _b_’s

that appear on it are instances of _b_, and so forth. The machine could

then control an electric typewriter and copy the marks that it sees.

The first stage of this machine would be one in which only printed

characters of a high degree of likeness could be recognized. In later

stages, handwriting, even rather illegible handwriting, might be

recognizable by the machine. We can call it an _automatic typist_.

The elements of the automatic typist would be the following:

1. _Phototubes_ (electronic tubes sensitive to

the brightness of light), which could sense the

difference between black and white (these already

exist).

2. A memory of the shapes of 52 letters, 10 digits,

and punctuation marks. Fine distinctions would be

required of this memory in some cases—like the

difference between the numeral 5 and the capital

letter S.

3. A control that would cause the machine to

_tune_ itself, so that a good matching between

the marks it observed and the shapes it remembered

would be reached.

4. A _triggering control_ so that, when the

machine had reached good enough matching between

its observations and its memory, the machine would

proceed to identify the marks, read them, and

transfer them.

5. An electric typewriter, which would respond to

the transferred instructions. (This also already

exists.)

This machine is perhaps not so farfetched as it might seem. During

World War II, gun-aiming equipment using the new technique _radar_

reached a high stage of development. Many shots that disabled and sank

enemy ships were fired in total darkness by radar-controlled guns.

On the glowing screen in the control room, there were two spots, one

that marked the target and one that reported the point at which the

gun was aimed. These two spots could be brought almost automatically

into agreement. In the same way, a report from a phototube telling

the shape of an observed mark and a report from the memory of the

machine telling the shape of a similar mark could be compared by the

machine for likeness and, if judged enough alike, could be approved as

identical.

Even the phrase “enough alike” can be applied by a machine. During

World War II, tremendous advances were made in machinery for

deciphering enemy messages. Machines observed various features and

patterns in enemy messages, swiftly counted the frequency of these

features, and carried out statistical tests. Then the machines selected

those few cases in which the patterns showed meaning instead of

randomness.

A machine like the automatic typist, if made flexible enough, would

be, of course, extremely useful. A great load of dull office work is

now being thrown on clerks whose task is to translate from writing and

typing into languages that machines can read, such as punch cards.

At the present time, if punch-card machines are widely used in a big

company, the company must employ large numbers of girls whose sole

duty is to read papers and punch up cards. A still bigger chore is the

work of typists in all kinds of businesses whose main duty is to read

handwriting, etc., and then copy the words on a typewriter.

[Illustration: Each square in the grill is watched by a phototube.

FIG. 1. Scheme for distinguishing _A_ and _H_ by 15

phototubes.]

Research has already begun on various features of the automatic typist

because of its obvious labor-saving value. For example, many patents

have been issued on schemes for dividing the area occupied by a letter

or a digit into an array of spots, with a battery of phototubes

each watching a spot. The reports from the phototubes together will

distinguish the letter or digit. For example, if we consider _A_ and

_H_ placed in a grill of fifteen spots, 5 long by 3 wide (see Fig.

1), then the phototubes can distinguish between _A_ and _H_ by sensing

black or white in the spot in the middle of the top row. When we

consider how easily and swiftly a human being does this, we can once

more marvel at the recognizing machine we all carry around with us in

our heads.

Automatic Stenographer

Another development that we can foresee is one that we can call the

_automatic stenographer_. This is a machine that will listen to sounds

and write them down in properly spelled English words. The elements of

this machine can be outlined:

1. Microphones, which can sense spoken sounds (these

already exist).

2. A memory storing the 40 (more or less) phonetic

units or sounds that make up English, such as the

23 consonant sounds,

_p_ _b_ _l_ _ng_

_f_ _v_ _m_ _th_

_t_ _d_ _n_ _r_

_s_ _z_ _h_ _y_

_k_ _g_ _w_

_ch_ _j_

_sh_ _zh_ (heard in “pleasure”)

and the 17 vowel sounds,

LONG SHORT OTHER

_A_ (“ate”) _a_ (“cat”) _ar_ (“are”)

_E_ (“eat”) _e_ (“end”) _aw_ (“awe”)

_I_ (“isle”) _i_ (“in”) _er_ (“err”)

_O_ (“owe”) _o_ (“on”) _ow_ (“owl”)

_U_ (“cute”) _u_ (“up”) _oi_ (“oil”)

_OO_ (“roof”) _oo_ (“book”)

3. A collection of the rules of spelling in English,

containing many statements like

The sound _b_ is always spelled _b_

The sound _sh_ may be spelled _sh_ (ship), _s_ (sugar),

_ti_ (station), _ci_ (physician), _ce_ (ocean) or

_tu_ (picture) and other statements based on context,

word lists, derivation, etc. These are the statements

by means of which a good English speller knows how to

spell even words that he hears for the first time.

4. A triggering control so that, when the machine

reaches good enough matching between its

observations of sounds, its memory of sounds, and

its knowledge of spelling rules, the machine will

identify groups of sounds as words, determine their

spelling, and report the letters determined.

5. An electric typewriter, which would type the

reported letters.

With this type of machine, you would dictate your letters into a

machine (now existing) that would record your voice. Then the record

would be placed on the automatic stenographer, and out would come your

letters written and spaced as they should be.

Automatic Recognizer

We can foresee a recognizing machine with very general powers. Suppose

that we call it an _automatic recognizer_ (see Fig. 2). It will have

the following elements:

1. _Input._ This element will consist of a set

of observing instruments, capable of perceiving

sights, sounds, etc. There will be ways of

positioning or _tuning_ these instruments.

2. _Memory._ This element will store knowledge.

It may store the patterns of observations that we

are interested in; or it may store general rules on

how to find patterns of observations that we will

be interested in. It will contain knowledge about

acceptable groups of patterns, about actions to be

performed in response to patterns, etc.

3. _Program 1._ The element “Program 1” performs

a set of standard instructions. Under these

instructions, the machine:

Compares group after group of observations with the

information in the memory.

Compares these groups with patterns furnished, or seeks

to organize the observations into patterns.

Counts cases and tests frequencies.

Finds out how much matching with patterns there is.

Tunes the observing instruments in ways to increase

matching.

[Illustration: FIG. 2. Scheme of an automatic recognizer.]

4. _Program 2._ The element “Program 2” performs

another set of standard instructions. Under these

instructions, the machine, if it is tuned well,

matches sets of observations one after another with

the patterns and so reads them.

5. _Triggering Control._ This element shifts the

control of the machine from Program 1 to Program

2. It does this when the machine reaches “good

matching.” We shall set the meaning of this into

the machine in much the same way as we set “warm”

into a thermostat.

6. _Output._ This element performs any action

that we want, depending on recognized patterns read

and any other knowledge or instructions stored in

the memory.

The automatic recognizer will be capable of extraordinary tasks. With

microphones and a large memory, this type of machine would be able to

hear a foreign language spoken and translate it into spoken or written

English. With phototubes and with an expanded filtering and decoding

capacity as in deciphering machines, the automatic recognizer should be

able to read a dead language, even those (such as Minoan or Etruscan)

that have so far resisted efforts to read it. The machine would derive

rules for the translation of the language and translate any sample.

An automatic recognizer could perhaps be equipped with many sensitive,

tiny observing instruments that could be placed around or in the brain

and nervous systems of animals. Then the machine might enable us to

find out what activity in the nervous system corresponds with what

activity in the animal.

TYPES OF PROBLEMS THAT MACHINES WILL SOLVE IN THE FUTURE

We turn now to the second question regarding the future of machines

that think: What types of problems can we foresee as solved by these

machines?

Problems of Control

Probably the foremost problem which machines that think can solve is

automatic control over all sorts of other machines. This involves

controlling a machine that is running so that it will do the right

thing at the right time in response to information. For example,

suppose that you are mowing a lawn with a mowing machine. You watch

the preceding strip so as to stay next to it. You watch the ends of

the strips, where you turn around. If a stick is caught in the cutting

blade, you stop and take it out. Now it is entirely possible to put

devices on the mowing machine so that all these things will be taken

care of automatically. In fact, in the case of plowing a large field,

a tractor-plow can be equipped with a device that guides it next to

the preceding furrow. Thus, once the first furrow around the edge has

been made, riderless tractors will plow a whole field and stop in the

middle.

For another example, take a gas furnace for heating steam to keep a

house warm. Such a furnace has automatic controls, which respond to the

following information whenever reported:

House too warm.

House not warm enough.

Too much steam pressure.

Not enough water in boiler.

Gas flame not lit.

Daytime.

Nighttime.

In fact, your own meaning of “warm” can be put into the control system:

you set the dial on your thermostat at the temperature that “warm” is

to be for you.

In the future many kinds of automatic control will be common. We shall

have automatic pilots for flying and landing airplanes. We shall

have automatic missiles for destructive purposes, such as bombing

and killing, and for constructive purposes, such as delivering mail

and fast freight. An article in the magazine _Fortune_ for November

1946 described the automatic factory (see Supplement 3). This is a

factory in which there would be automatic arms for holding stuff being

manufactured, and automatic feed lines for supplying material just

where it is needed. All this factory would be controlled by machines

that handle information automatically and produce actions that respond

to information.

This prospect fills us with concern as well as with amazement. How

shall we control these automatic machines, these robots, these

Frankensteins? What will there be left for us to do to earn our living?

But more of this in the next chapter.

Problems of Science

Other problems for which we can foresee the use of machines that think

are the understanding, and later the controlling, of nature. One of

these problems is weather forecasting and weather control.

The Weather Brain

We can imagine the following type of machine—a _weather brain_. A

thousand weather observatories all over the country observe the weather

at 8 A.M. The observations are fed automatically through a countrywide

network of communication lines into a central station. Here a giant

machine, containing a great deal of scientific knowledge about the

weather, takes in all the data reported to it. At 8:15 the weather

brain starts to calculate; in half an hour it has finished, having

produced an excellent forecast of the weather for the whole country.

Then it proceeds to transmit its forecast all over the country. By 8:50

every weather station, newspaper, radio station, and airport in the

country has the details. In October 1945, Dr. V. K. Zworykin of the

Princeton Laboratories of the Radio Corporation of America proposed

solving the problem of weather forecasting in this way by a giant brain.

The weather brain will have a second stage of application. From time to

time and here and there, the weather is unstable: it can be triggered

to behave in one way or another. For example, recently, pellets of

_frozen carbon dioxide_—often called Dry Ice—have been dropped from

planes and have caused rain. In fact, a few pounds of Dry Ice have

apparently caused several hundred tons of rain or snow. In similar

ways, we may, for example, turn away a hail storm so that hail will

fall over a barren mountain instead of over a farming valley and

thus protect crops. Or we may dispel conditions that would lead to a

tornado, thus avoiding its damage. Both these examples involve local

weather disturbances. However, even the greatest weather disturbances,

like hurricanes and blizzards, may eventually be directed to some

extent. Thus the weather may become to some degree subject to man’s

control, and the weather brain will be able to tell men where and when

to take action.

Psychological Testing

Another scientific problem to which new machinery for handling

information applies is the problem of understanding human beings and

their behavior. This increased understanding may lead to much wiser

dealing with human behavior.

For example, consider tests of aptitudes. If you take one of these

tests, you may be asked to mark which word out of five suggested ones

is nearest in meaning to a given word. Or your test may be 40 simple

arithmetical problems to be solved in 25 minutes. Or you may be given

a sheet with 20 circles, and be asked to put 3 dots in the first, 7

dots in the second, 4 dots in the third, 11 dots in the fourth, and

so on, irregularly; you may be given a total of 45 seconds to do this

as well as you can. Now, if a vocational counselor gives you one of

these tests, and if you get 84 out of 100 on it, he needs to know just

what he has measured about you. Also, he needs to know whether he can

reasonably forecast that, as a result of your grade of 84, you will

be good at writing articles, or good at supervising the work of other

people, or good at designing in a machine shop. He needs to know the

records of people with scores of about 84 on this test and to have

evidence supporting his forecasts.

If we wish to make the most use of the tests, we need to carry out a

good deal of statistics, mathematics, and logic. For example, it will

turn out that answers to some questions are much more significant

than answers to others, and so we can greatly improve the quality of

the tests by keeping only the more significant questions. Powerful

machinery for handling calculations will be very useful in the field of

aptitude testing.

But, you may ask, what if the person analyzing your answers has to use

interpretations and judgments? If the judgments and interpretations can

be expressed in words, and if the words can be translated into machine

language, then the machine can carry out the analysis. Usually the

difference between a rule and a judgment is simply this: a rule in a

case in which it is hard to express all the factors being considered is

called a judgment.

Psychological Trainer

It is conceivable that machines that think can eventually be applied

in the actual treatment of mental illness and maladjustment. Consider

what a physician does. In treating a psychiatric case, such as a

_neurosis_, a physician uses words almost entirely. He asks questions.

He listens to the patient’s answers. Each answer takes the physician

nearer and nearer to a diagnosis. By and by the physician knows what

most of the difficulty is. Then he must present his knowledge slowly

to the patient, gradually guiding the patient to understanding. It is

a psychological truth that telling a man in ten minutes what is wrong

with him does not cure him. The physician seeks to free the patient

from the tormenting circles of habit and worry in which he has been

trapped. Often the diagnosis is short and the treatment is long; the

reasons for the neurosis may soon be clear to the physician, but they

may take months to become clear to the patient.

Now let us consider the following kind of machine as an aid to the

physician. We might call this kind of machine a _psychological

trainer_, for in many ways it is like the training machines used in

World War II for training a pilot to fly an airplane. The psychological

trainer would have the following properties:

1. The machine is able to show sound movies—produce

pictures and utter words.

2. It is able to put before the patient: situations,

problems, questions, experiences, etc.

3. It is able to take in responses from the patient.

4. It is able to receive a program of instructions

from the physician.

5. Depending on the responses of the patient and on

the program from the physician, the training

machine can select more material to put before the

patient.

6. The training machine produces a record of what it

presented and of how the patient responded, so that

the physician and the patient can study the record

later.

What sort of films would the machine hold? The machine could be loaded

with a number of films which would help in the particular type of

neurosis from which the patient was suffering.

What sort of responses could the patient make? The patient might have

buttons in front of him which he could press to indicate such answers

as:

Yes I don’t know Repeat

No It depends Go ahead

Also, the patient might hold a device—like a lie detector,

perhaps—which would report his state of tenseness, etc., and so report

what he really felt.

Where would the machine’s questions come from? From one or more

physicians very clever in the treatment of mental illness.

Suppose that the patient is inconsistent in his answers? The machine,

discovering the inconsistencies, could return to the subject and ask

related questions in a different way. As soon as several questions

related to the same point are answered consistently, the machine could

exclude groups of questions that no longer apply and could proceed to