I have long considered the gross abuse of astrology in this kingdom, and
upon debating the matter with myself, I could not possibly lay the fault
upon the art, but upon those gross impostors who set up to be the
artists. I know several learned men have contended that the whole is a
cheat; that it is absurd and ridiculous to imagine the stars can have any
influence at all upon human actions, thoughts, or inclinations; and
whoever has not bent his studies that way may be excused for thinking so,
when he sees in how wretched a manner that noble art is treated by a few
mean illiterate traders between us and the stars, who import a yearly
stock of nonsense, lies, folly, and impertinence, which they offer to the
world as genuine from the planets, though they descend from no greater a
height than their own brains.
I intend in a short time to publish a large and rational defence of this
art, and therefore shall say no more in its justification at present than
that it hath been in all ages defended by many learned men, and among the
rest by Socrates himself, whom I look upon as undoubtedly the wisest of
uninspired mortals: to which if we add that those who have condemned this
art, though otherwise learned, having been such as either did not apply
their studies this way, or at least did not succeed in their
applications, their testimony will not be of much weight to its
disadvantage, since they are liable to the common objection of condemning
what they did not understand.
Nor am I at all offended, or think it an injury to the art, when I see
the common dealers in it, the students in astrology, the Philomaths, and
the rest of that tribe, treated by wise men with the utmost scorn and
contempt; but rather wonder, when I observe gentlemen in the country,
rich enough to serve the nation in Parliament, poring in Partridge's
Almanack to find out the events of the year at home and abroad, not
daring to propose a hunting-match till Gadbury or he have fixed the
weather.
I will allow either of the two I have mentioned, or any other of the
fraternity, to be not only astrologers, but conjurers too, if I do not
produce a hundred instances in all their almanacks to convince any
reasonable man that they do not so much as understand common grammar and
syntax; that they are not able to spell any word out of the usual road,
nor even in their prefaces write common sense or intelligible English.
Then for their observations and predictions, they are such as will
equally suit any age or country in the world. "This month a certain
great person will be threatened with death or sickness." This the
newspapers will tell them; for there we find at the end of the year that
no month passes without the death of some person of note; and it would be
hard if it should be otherwise, when there are at least two thousand
persons of note in this kingdom, many of them old, and the almanack-maker
has the liberty of choosing the sickliest season of the year where he may
fix his prediction. Again, "This month an eminent clergyman will be
preferred;" of which there may be some hundreds, half of them with one
foot in the grave. Then "such a planet in such a house shows great
machinations, plots, and conspiracies, that may in time be brought to
light:" after which, if we hear of any discovery, the astrologer gets the
honour; if not, his prediction still stands good. And at last, "God
preserve King William from all his open and secret enemies, Amen." When
if the King should happen to have died, the astrologer plainly foretold
it; otherwise it passes but for the pious ejaculation of a loyal subject;
though it unluckily happened in some of their almanacks that poor King
William was prayed for many months after he was dead, because it fell out
that he died about the beginning of the year.
To mention no more of their impertinent predictions: what have we to do
with their advertisements about pills and drink for disease? or their
mutual quarrels in verse and prose of Whig and Tory, wherewith the stars
have little to do?
Having long observed and lamented these, and a hundred other abuses of
this art, too tedious to repeat, I resolved to proceed in a new way,
which I doubt not will be to the general satisfaction of the kingdom. I
can this year produce but a specimen of what I design for the future,
having employed most part of my time in adjusting and correcting the
calculations I made some years past, because I would offer nothing to the
world of which I am not as fully satisfied as that I am now alive. For
these two last years I have not failed in above one or two particulars,
and those of no very great moment. I exactly foretold the miscarriage at
Toulon, with all its particulars, and the loss of Admiral Shovel, though
I was mistaken as to the day, placing that accident about thirty-six
hours sooner than it happened; but upon reviewing my schemes, I quickly
found the cause of that error. I likewise foretold the Battle of Almanza
to the very day and hour, with the lose on both sides, and the
consequences thereof. All which I showed to some friends many months
before they happened--that is, I gave them papers sealed up, to open at
such a time, after which they were at liberty to read them; and there
they found my predictions true in every article, except one or two very
minute.
As for the few following predictions I now offer the world, I forbore to
publish them till I had perused the several almanacks for the year we are
now entered on. I find them all in the usual strain, and I beg the
reader will compare their manner with mine. And here I make bold to tell
the world that I lay the whole credit of my art upon the truth of these
predictions; and I will be content that Partridge, and the rest of his
clan, may hoot me for a cheat and impostor if I fail in any single
particular of moment. I believe any man who reads this paper will look
upon me to be at least a person of as much honesty and understanding as a
common maker of almanacks. I do not lurk in the dark; I am not wholly
unknown in the world; I have set my name at length, to be a mark of
infamy to mankind, if they shall find I deceive them.
In one thing I must desire to be forgiven, that I talk more sparingly of
home affairs. As it will be imprudence to discover secrets of State, so
it would be dangerous to my person; but in smaller matters, and that are
not of public consequence, I shall be very free; and the truth of my
conjectures will as much appear from those as the others. As for the
most signal events abroad, in France, Flanders, Italy, and Spain, I shall
make no scruple to predict them in plain terms. Some of them are of
importance, and I hope I shall seldom mistake the day they will happen;
therefore I think good to inform the reader that I all along make use of
the Old Style observed in England, which I desire he will compare with
that of the newspapers at the time they relate the actions I mention.
I must add one word more. I know it hath been the opinion of several of
the learned, who think well enough of the true art of astrology, that the
stars do only incline, and not force the actions or wills of men, and
therefore, however I may proceed by right rules, yet I cannot in prudence
so confidently assure the events will follow exactly as I predict them.
I hope I have maturely considered this objection, which in some cases is
of no little weight. For example: a man may, by the influence of an over-
ruling planet, be disposed or inclined to lust, rage, or avarice, and yet
by the force of reason overcome that bad influence; and this was the case
of Socrates. But as the great events of the world usually depend upon
numbers of men, it cannot be expected they should all unite to cross
their inclinations from pursuing a general design wherein they
unanimously agree. Besides, the influence of the stars reaches to many
actions and events which are not any way in the power of reason, as
sickness, death, and what we commonly call accidents, with many more,
needless to repeat.
But now it is time to proceed to my predictions, which I have begun to
calculate from the time that the sun enters into Aries. And this I take
to be properly the beginning of the natural year. I pursue them to the
time that he enters Libra, or somewhat more, which is the busy period of
the year. The remainder I have not yet adjusted, upon account of several
impediments needless here to mention. Besides, I must remind the reader
again that this is but a specimen of what I design in succeeding years to
treat more at large, if I may have liberty and encouragement.
My first prediction is but a trifle, yet I will mention it, to show how
ignorant those sottish pretenders to astrology are in their own concerns.
It relates to Partridge, the almanack-maker. I have consulted the stars
of his nativity by my own rules, and find he will infallibly die upon the
29th of March next, about eleven at night, of a raging fever; therefore I
advise him to consider of it, and settle his affairs in time.
The month of _April_ will be observable for the death of many great
persons. On the 4th will die the Cardinal de Noailles, Archbishop of
Paris; on the 11th, the young Prince of Asturias, son to the Duke of
Anjou; on the 14th, a great peer of this realm will die at his country
house; on the 19th, an old layman of great fame for learning, and on the
23rd, an eminent goldsmith in Lombard Street. I could mention others,
both at home and abroad, if I did not consider it is of very little use
or instruction to the reader, or to the world.
As to public affairs: On the 7th of this month there will be an
insurrection in Dauphiny, occasioned by the oppressions of the people,
which will not be quieted in some months.
On the 15th will be a violent storm on the south-east coast of France,
which will destroy many of their ships, and some in the very harbour.
The 11th will be famous for the revolt of a whole province or kingdom,
excepting one city, by which the affairs of a certain prince in the
Alliance will take a better face.
_May_, against common conjectures, will be no very busy month in Europe,
but very signal for the death of the Dauphin, which will happen on the
7th, after a short fit of sickness, and grievous torments with the
strangury. He dies less lamented by the Court than the kingdom.
On the 9th a Marshal of France will break his leg by a fall from his
horse. I have not been able to discover whether he will then die or not.
On the 11th will begin a most important siege, which the eyes of all
Europe will be upon: I cannot be more particular, for in relating affairs
that so nearly concern the Confederates, and consequently this kingdom, I
am forced to confine myself for several reasons very obvious to the
reader.
On the 15th news will arrive of a very surprising event, than which
nothing could be more unexpected.
On the 19th three noble ladies of this kingdom will, against all
expectation, prove with child, to the great joy of their husbands.
On the 23rd a famous buffoon of the playhouse will die a ridiculous
death, suitable to his vocation.
_June_. This month will be distinguished at home by the utter dispersing
of those ridiculous deluded enthusiasts commonly called the Prophets,
occasioned chiefly by seeing the time come that many of their prophecies
should be fulfilled, and then finding themselves deceived by contrary
events. It is indeed to be admired how any deceiver can be so weak to
foretell things near at hand, when a very few months must of necessity
discover the impostor to all the world; in this point less prudent than
common almanack-makers, who are so wise to wonder in generals, and talk
dubiously, and leave to the reader the business of interpreting.
On the 1st of this month a French general will be killed by a random shot
of a cannon-ball.
On the 6th a fire will break out in the suburbs of Paris, which will
destroy above a thousand houses, and seems to be the foreboding of what
will happen, to the surprise of all Europe, about the end of the
following month.
On the 10th a great battle will be fought, which will begin at four of
the clock in the afternoon, and last till nine at night with great
obstinacy, but no very decisive event. I shall not name the place, for
the reasons aforesaid, but the commanders on each left wing will be
killed. I see bonfires and hear the noise of guns for a victory.
On the 14th there will be a false report of the French king's death.
On the 20th Cardinal Portocarero will die of a dysentery, with great
suspicion of poison, but the report of his intention to revolt to King
Charles will prove false.
_July_. The 6th of this month a certain general will, by a glorious
action, recover the reputation he lost by former misfortunes.
On the 12th a great commander will die a prisoner in the hands of his
enemies.
On the 14th a shameful discovery will be made of a French Jesuit giving
poison to a great foreign general; and when he is put to the torture,
will make wonderful discoveries.
In short, this will prove a month of great action, if I might have
liberty to relate the particulars.
At home, the death of an old famous senator will happen on the 15th at
his country house, worn with age and diseases.
But that which will make this month memorable to all posterity is the
death of the French king, Louis the Fourteenth, after a week's sickness
at Marli, which will happen on the 29th, about six o'clock in the
evening. It seems to be an effect of the gout in his stomach, followed
by a flux. And in three days after Monsieur Chamillard will follow his
master, dying suddenly of an apoplexy.
In this month likewise an ambassador will die in London, but I cannot
assign the day.
_August_. The affairs of France will seem to suffer no change for a
while under the Duke of Burgundy's administration; but the genius that
animated the whole machine being gone, will be the cause of mighty turns
and revolutions in the following year. The new king makes yet little
change either in the army or the Ministry, but the libels against his
grandfather, that fly about his very Court, give him uneasiness.
I see an express in mighty haste, with joy and wonder in his looks,
arriving by break of day on the 26th of this month, having travelled in
three days a prodigious journey by land and sea. In the evening I hear
bells and guns, and see the blazing of a thousand bonfires.
A young admiral of noble birth does likewise this month gain immortal
honour by a great achievement.
The affairs of Poland are this month entirely settled; Augustus resigns
his pretensions which he had again taken up for some time: Stanislaus is
peaceably possessed of the throne, and the King of Sweden declares for
the emperor.
I cannot omit one particular accident here at home: that near the end of
this month much mischief will be done at Bartholomew Fair by the fall of
a booth.
_September_. This month begins with a very surprising fit of frosty
weather, which will last near twelve days.
The Pope, having long languished last month, the swellings in his legs
breaking, and the flesh mortifying, will die on the 11th instant; and in
three weeks' time, after a mighty contest, be succeeded by a cardinal of
the Imperial faction, but native of Tuscany, who is now about sixty-one
years old.
The French army acts now wholly on the defensive, strongly fortified in
their trenches, and the young French king sends overtures for a treaty of
peace by the Duke of Mantua; which, because it is a matter of State that
concerns us here at home, I shall speak no farther of it.
I shall add but one prediction more, and that in mystical terms, which
shall be included in a verse out of Virgil--
_Alter erit jam Tethys_, _et altera quae vehat Argo_
_Delectos Heroas_.
Upon the 25th day of this month, the fulfilling of this prediction will
be manifest to everybody.
This is the farthest I have proceeded in my calculations for the present
year. I do not pretend that these are all the great events which will
happen in this period, but that those I have set down will infallibly
come to pass. It will perhaps still be objected why I have not spoken
more particularly of affairs at home, or of the success of our armies
abroad, which I might, and could very largely have done; but those in
power have wisely discouraged men from meddling in public concerns, and I
was resolved by no means to give the least offence. This I will venture
to say, that it will be a glorious campaign for the Allies, wherein the
English forces, both by sea and land, will have their full share of
honour; that Her Majesty Queen Anne will continue in health and
prosperity; and that no ill accident will arrive to any in the chief
Ministry.
As to the particular events I have mentioned, the readers may judge by
the fulfilling of them, whether I am on the level with common
astrologers, who, with an old paltry cant, and a few pothooks for
planets, to amuse the vulgar, have, in my opinion, too long been suffered
to abuse the world. But an honest physician ought not to be despised
because there are such things as mountebanks. I hope I have some share
of reputation, which I would not willingly forfeit for a frolic or
humour; and I believe no gentleman who reads this paper will look upon it
to be of the same cast or mould with the common scribblers that are every
day hawked about. My fortune has placed me above the little regard of
scribbling for a few pence, which I neither value nor want; therefore,
let no wise man too hastily condemn this essay, intended for a good
design, to cultivate and improve an ancient art long in disgrace, by
having fallen into mean and unskilful hands. A little time will
determine whether I have deceived others or myself; and I think it is no
very unreasonable request that men would please to suspend their
judgments till then. I was once of the opinion with those who despise
all predictions from the stars, till in the year 1686 a man of quality
showed me, written in his album, that the most learned astronomer,
Captain H---, assured him, he would never believe anything of the stars'
influence if there were not a great revolution in England in the year
1688. Since that time I began to have other thoughts, and after eighteen
years' diligent study and application, I think I have no reason to repent
of my pains. I shall detain the reader no longer than to let him know
that the account I design to give of next year's events shall take in the
principal affairs that happen in Europe; and if I be denied the liberty
of offering it to my own country, I shall appeal to the learned world, by
publishing it in Latin, and giving order to have it printed in Holland.
THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF THE FIRST OF MR. BICKERSTAFF'S PREDICTIONS; BEING
AN ACCOUNT OF THE DEATH OF MR. PARTRIDGE THE ALMANACK-MAKER, UPON THE
29TH INSTANT.
_In a Letter to a Person of Honour_; _Written in the Year_ 1708.
My Lord,--In obedience to your lordship's commands, as well as to satisfy
my own curiosity, I have for some days past inquired constantly after
Partridge the almanack-maker, of whom it was foretold in Mr.
Bickerstaff's predictions, published about a month ago, that he should
die the 29th instant, about eleven at night, of a raging fever. I had
some sort of knowledge of him when I was employed in the Revenue, because
he used every year to present me with his almanack, as he did other
gentlemen, upon the score of some little gratuity we gave him. I saw him
accidentally once or twice about ten days before he died, and observed he
began very much to droop and languish, though I hear his friends did not
seem to apprehend him in any danger. About two or three days ago he grew
ill, was confined first to his chamber, and in a few hours after to his
bed, where Dr. Case and Mrs. Kirleus were sent for, to visit and to
prescribe to him. Upon this intelligence I sent thrice every day one
servant or other to inquire after his health; and yesterday, about four
in the afternoon, word was brought me that he was past hopes; upon which,
I prevailed with myself to go and see him, partly out of commiseration,
and I confess, partly out of curiosity. He knew me very well, seemed
surprised at my condescension, and made me compliments upon it as well as
he could in the condition he was. The people about him said he had been
for some time delirious; but when I saw him, he had his understanding as
well as ever I knew, and spoke strong and hearty, without any seeming
uneasiness or constraint. After I had told him how sorry I was to see
him in those melancholy circumstances, and said some other civilities
suitable to the occasion, I desired him to tell me freely and
ingenuously, whether the predictions Mr. Bickerstaff had published
relating to his death had not too much affected and worked on his
imagination. He confessed he had often had it in his head, but never
with much apprehension, till about a fortnight before; since which time
it had the perpetual possession of his mind and thoughts, and he did
verily believe was the true natural cause of his present distemper:
"For," said he, "I am thoroughly persuaded, and I think I have very good
reasons, that Mr. Bickerstaff spoke altogether by guess, and knew no more
what will happen this year than I did myself." I told him his discourse
surprised me, and I would be glad he were in a state of health to be able
to tell me what reason he had to be convinced of Mr. Bickerstaff's
ignorance. He replied, "I am a poor, ignorant follow, bred to a mean
trade, yet I have sense enough to know that all pretences of foretelling
by astrology are deceits, for this manifest reason, because the wise and
the learned, who can only know whether there be any truth in this
science, do all unanimously agree to laugh at and despise it; and none
but the poor ignorant vulgar give it any credit, and that only upon the
word of such silly wretches as I and my fellows, who can hardly write or
read." I then asked him why he had not calculated his own nativity, to
see whether it agreed with Bickerstaff's prediction, at which he shook
his head and said, "Oh, sir, this is no time for jesting, but for
repenting those fooleries, as I do now from the very bottom of my heart."
"By what I can gather from you," said I, "the observations and
predictions you printed with your almanacks were mere impositions on the
people." He replied, "If it were otherwise I should have the less to
answer for. We have a common form for all those things; as to
foretelling the weather, we never meddle with that, but leave it to the
printer, who takes it out of any old almanack as he thinks fit; the rest
was my own invention, to make my almanack sell, having a wife to
maintain, and no other way to get my bread; for mending old shoes is a
poor livelihood; and," added he, sighing, "I wish I may not have done
more mischief by my physic than my astrology; though I had some good
receipts from my grandmother, and my own compositions were such as I
thought could at least do no hurt."
I had some other discourse with him, which now I cannot call to mind; and
I fear I have already tired your lordship. I shall only add one
circumstance, that on his death-bed he declared himself a Nonconformist,
and had a fanatic preacher to be his spiritual guide. After half an
hour's conversation I took my leave, being half stifled by the closeness
of the room. I imagined he could not hold out long, and therefore
withdrew to a little coffee-house hard by, leaving a servant at the house
with orders to come immediately and tell me, as nearly as he could, the
minute when Partridge should expire, which was not above two hours after,
when, looking upon my watch, I found it to be above five minutes after
seven; by which it is clear that Mr. Bickerstaff was mistaken almost four
hours in his calculation. In the other circumstances he was exact
enough. But, whether he has not been the cause of this poor man's death,
as well as the predictor, may be very reasonably disputed. However, it
must be confessed the matter is odd enough, whether we should endeavour
to account for it by chance, or the effect of imagination. For my own
part, though I believe no man has less faith in these matters, yet I
shall wait with some impatience, and not without some expectation, the
fulfilling of Mr. Bickerstaff's second prediction, that the Cardinal do
Noailles is to die upon the 4th of April, and if that should be verified
as exactly as this of poor Partridge, I must own I should be wholly
surprised, and at a loss, and should infallibly expect the accomplishment
of all the rest.