THE CAREFULLY LAID SCHEME 1
CHAPTER II
THE MANY-TRACKED LINES OF GERMAN DIPLOMACY 15
CHAPTER III
THE PLAN AND ITS EXECUTION 27
CHAPTER IV
FORCING THE QUARREL 40
CHAPTER V
GERMANY’S PROGRAMME 69
CHAPTER VI
THE POSITION OF ITALY 78
CHAPTER VII
THE TWELFTH HOUR 98
CHAPTER VIII
THE EARTHQUAKE 127
CHAPTER IX
BRITISH NEUTRALITY AND BELLIGERENCY 141
CHAPTER X
THE INFAMOUS OFFER 154
CHAPTER XI
JUST FOR “A SCRAP OF PAPER” 177
APPENDIX
DIPLOMACY AND THE WAR 205
[Illustration:
_Photo: Elliott & Fry_
DR. E. J. DILLON]
A SCRAP _of_ PAPER
THE INNER HISTORY OF
GERMAN DIPLOMACY
AND HER SCHEME OF
WORLD-WIDE CONQUEST
_By_
DR. E. J. DILLON
THIRD EDITION.
HODDER AND STOUGHTON
LONDON NEW YORK TORONTO
MCMXIV
INTRODUCTORY
“Just for a word--neutrality, a word which in war-time had so often
been disregarded--just for a scrap of paper Great Britain was going to
make war.” Such was the significant comment of the German Chancellor on
Great Britain’s determination to uphold the neutrality of Belgium. A
scrap of paper! This phrase, applied to a binding treaty, is destined
to stick like a Nessus’ shirt to the memory of its author, his imperial
inspirer, and their country until such time as the militarism which
originated it has been consumed without residue. It is a Satanic sneer
hurled with fell purpose into a world of civilized human beings. No
such powerful dissolvent of organized society has been devised since
men first began to aggregate. The primal source of the inner cohesive
force which holds the elements of society together is faith in the
plighted word. Destroy that and you have withdrawn the cement from
the structure, which will forthwith crumble away. But this prospect
does not dismay the Prussian. He is ready to face and adjust it to
his needs. He would substitute for this inner cohesion the outer
pressure of militarism, which, like the hoops of a barrel, press
together the staves. Brutal force, in the form of jackboot tyranny,
then, is the amended formula of social life which is to be forced upon
Europe and the world. Such, in brief, is the new social gospel of the
Hohenzollerns, the last word of Teutonic culture.
This revolutionary doctrine, applied thus simply and undisguisedly
to what normal peoples deem the sacredness of treaties, has awakened
dormant British emotion to self-consciousness and let loose a storm
of indignation here. It startled the quietism of the masses and their
self-complacent leaders, whose comforting practice was to refuse to
think evil of the Germans, however overwhelming the evidence. The windy
folly of these _advocati diaboli_, from whom the bulk of the British
nation derived their misconceptions of the German Empire, worked evils
of which we have as yet witnessed only the beginning. Those who, like
myself, know the country, its institutions, its language, literature,
social life, and national strivings, and who continually warned their
countrymen of what was coming, were put out of court as croaking
prophets of the evil which we ourselves were charged with stirring up.
It is now clear to the dullest apprehension that the most dismal of
those forecasts, the most sinister of those predictions, were terribly
real, while the comforting assurances of the ever-ready publicists
and politicians, who knew Germany only from books of travel, holiday
excursions, or the after-dinner eloquence of members of Anglo-German
Leagues, were but dangerous mirages which lulled the nation’s
misgivings to slumber. And now the masses have been ungently awakened.
The simple declaration of a German statesman of repute, and a man, too,
of the highest honesty as this term is understood in his own country,
that the most solemn treaty, ratified and relied upon as stronger than
fortresses bristling with cannon, is but a scrap of paper, unworthy
the notice of an enterprising nation, suddenly drew into the light of
Western civilization the new and subversive body of doctrine which the
Teutons of Europe had for a generation been conspiring to establish,
and would have succeeded in establishing were it not for a single
hitch in the execution of their programme. If the combined efforts of
peace-loving France, Russia, Great Britain, and Italy had moved the
Tsar’s Government to stay its hand and allow Servia to be mutilated,
and the Bucharest Treaty to be flung aside as a worthless scrap of
paper, or if Austria had been permitted to listen to M. Sazonoff’s
request and reduce her demands within the compass of the possible, the
realization of the Teutonic plot against non-German Europe would have
been begun later on, under much more favourable auspices, and probably
worked out to a successful issue. That plot belongs to a category of
crimes against the human race which can hardly be more effectively
attacked than by plainly stating its objects and the means relied upon
to attain them.
The objects of Prussia’s ambition--an ambition shared by every
anæmic, bespectacled clerk and able-bodied tram-conductor in the
Fatherland--are “cultural,” and the means of achieving them are
heavy guns, quick-firers, and millions of ruthless warriors. Real
German culture in all its manifestations--scientific, artistic,
philosophical, musical, commercial, and military--accepts and
champions the new principle and the fresh ideas which are to
regenerate the effete social organisms of to-day. According to the
theory underlying this grandiose national enterprise, the forces
of Christianity are spent. New ichor for the dry veins of decrepit
Europe is stored up in German philosophy and poetry. Mediæval art has
exhausted the traditional forms, but Teutonism is ready to furnish it
with new ones. Music is almost a creation of German genius. Commerce
was stagnating in the ruts of old-world use and wont until German
enterprise created new markets for it, and infused a new spirit into
its trading community. Applied science owes more to German research
and ingenuity than to the efforts of all the world besides. And
the race thus highly gifted is deserving of a field worthy of its
world-regenerating labours. At present it is cooped up in Central
Europe with an absurdly small coast-line. Its surplus population has,
for lack of colonies, to be dumped down on foreign shores, where it is
lost for ever to the Fatherland. For this degrading position, which
can no longer be tolerated, there is but one remedy: expansion. But
to be effectual it must be expansion combined with Germanization. And
the only means of accomplishing this end is for Germany to hack her
way through the decrepit ethnic masses that obstruct her path and to
impose her higher civilization on the natives. Poland was the first
vile body on which this experiment was tried, and it has been found,
and authoritatively announced, that the Slavs are but ethnic manure,
useful to fertilize the seed-fields of Teutonic culture, but good for
little else. The Latin races, too, are degenerates who live on memories
and thrive on tolerance. Beef-eating Britons are the incarnation of
base hypocrisy and crass self-indulgence, and their Empire, like a
hollow tree, still stands only because no storm has yet assailed it.
To set youthful, healthy, idealistic Germany in the high places now
occupied by those inert masses that once were progressive nations is
but to adjust obsolete conditions to the pressing requirements of the
present time--to execute the wise decrees of a just God. And in order
to bring this task to a satisfactory issue, militarism must reign as
the paramount power before culture can ascend the throne. Militarism is
a necessity, and unreasoning obedience the condition of its success.
It is easy to think scorn of these arrogant pretensions and to turn
away from them to what may seem more urgent and more profitable
occupations. And hitherto this has been the attitude towards them of
the advanced wing of British progressists, who imitated the Germans
in this--that they judged of others’ motives by their own. But the
danger cannot be exorcized by contempt or indifference. The forces
at the command of the Teuton are stupendous. His army is a numerous,
homogeneous, and self-sacrificing nation. His weapons are the most
deadly that applied science could invent and the most practised
skill could fashion. And these weapons are handled not by amateur
or unwilling soldiers, but by fanatics as frenzied as the Moslems,
who behold paradise and its houris athwart the grey smoke of the
battlefield. For Teutonism is not merely a political system, it is also
a religious cult, and its symbol of faith is Deutschland über Alles.
Germany above everything, including human and divine laws.
One of the dogmas of this cult resembles that of the invisible Church,
and lays it down that the members of this chosen race are far more
numerous in the present, as indeed they also were in the past, than
the untutored mind is apt to imagine. The greatest artists of mediæval
Italy, whom an ignorant world regards as Italian, nay Christ himself,
were Germans whose nationality has only just been discovered. That the
Dutch, the Swiss, the Belgians, the Swedes and Norwegians, and the
recalcitrant British are all sheep strayed from the Teutonic flock,
and destined to be brought back by the collies of militarism, is a
self-evident axiom. This process of recovery had already begun and was
making visible progress. Antwerp was already practically Germanized,
and Professor Delbrück, in his reply to one of my articles on German
expansion, described it as practically a German port. The elections
to the municipality in that flourishing Belgian town were run by the
German wealthy residents there. The lace manufactories of Belgium were
wholly in German hands. So, too, was the trade in furs. A few years
more of peaceful interpenetration would have seen Holland and Belgium
linked by a postal and, perhaps, a Customs union with the German Empire.
In this new faith ethics play no part. The furtherance of the German
cause takes precedence of every law, divine and human. It is the one
rule of right living. Whatever is done for Germany or for the German
army abroad or at home, be it a misdemeanour or a crime in the eyes of
other peoples, is well done and meritorious. A young midshipman, going
home at night in a state of semi-intoxication, slays a civilian because
he imagines--and, as it turns out, mistakenly imagines--that he has
been slighted, and feels bound in duty to vindicate the honour of the
Kaiser’s navy. He is applauded, not punished. Soldiers sabre laughing
civilians in the street for the honour of the Kaiser’s uniform, and in
lieu of chastisement they receive public approbation. Abroad, Germans
of position--German residents in Antwerp offered a recent example--worm
themselves into the confidence of the authorities, learn their secrets,
offer them “friendly” advice, and secretly communicate everything
of military importance which they discover to their Government,
which secretly subsidizes them, and betray the trusting people whose
hospitality and friendship they have so long enjoyed. Their conduct is
patriotic. The press deliberately concocts news, spreads it throughout
the world, systematically poisoning the wells of truth, and then
vilifies the base hypocrisy of the British, who contradict it. That
is part of the work of furthering the good cause of civilization.
Tampering with State documents and forging State papers are recognized
expedients which are wholly justified by the German “necessity which
knows no law.” We have had enlightening examples of them since the war
broke out. Prince Bismarck availed himself of this cultural privilege
when he altered the Kaiser’s despatch in order to precipitate a
collision with France. And the verdict of the nation was “Well done,
thou good and faithful servant, who hast made such patriotic use of the
maxim that the end, when it is Germany’s cause, justifies the means
and hallows the act.” Since his day the practice has been reduced to a
system.
With such principles illustrated by such examples, how could the
present Imperial Chancellor regard a mere parchment treaty that lay
across the road of his country’s army other than as a mere scrap of
paper?
That was a logical corollary of the root-principle of Pan-Germanism.
Germany’s necessity, of which her own Kaiser, statesmen, diplomatists,
and generals are the best judges, knows no law. Every treaty,
every obligation, every duty has to vanish before it: the Treaty
of Bucharest, establishing equilibrium in the Balkans, as well as
the Treaty of 1839, safeguarding the neutrality of Belgium. Hence
nobody conversant with the nature, growth, and spread of this new
militant race-worship was in the least surprised at the Chancellor’s
contempt for the scrap of paper and for the simple-minded statesmen
who proclaimed its binding force. I certainly was not. Experience had
familiarized me with these German doctrines and practices; and although
my experience was more constant and striking than that of our public
men who had spent most of their lives in Great Britain, they, too, had
had tokens enough of the new ethics which Prussia had imported into
her international policy to put them on their guard against what was
coming. But nobody is so blind as he who will not see.
Pan-Germanism, then, is become a racial religion, and to historical
and other sciences has been confided the task of demonstrating its
truth. But if curiosity prompts us to inquire to what race its
military apostles, the Prussians, belong, and to interrogate history
and philology on the subject, we find that they are not Germans at
all. This fact appears to have escaped notice here. The Prussians are
members of a race which in the ethnic groups of European Aryans occupy
a place midway between the Slavs and the Teutons. Their next-of-kin
are the Lithuanians and the Letts. The characteristic traits of the
old Prussians, the surviving fragments of whose language I was once
obliged to study, are brutal arrogance towards those under them, and
cringing servility towards their superiors. One has but to turn to
the political history of the race to gather abundant illustrations of
these distinctive marks. To the submissiveness of the masses is to be
attributed the ease with which the leaders of the nation drilled it
into a vast fighting machine, whose members often and suddenly changed
sides without murmur or criticism at the bidding of their chief. And
it was with this redoubtable weapon that the Hohenzollern dynasty,
which itself is German, won for the State over which it presided
territory and renown. This done, and done thoroughly, it was Prussia
who experimented upon all Germany in the way in which the Hohenzollerns
had experimented on Prussia; and being supported by the literary,
artistic, and scientific elements of the German people, succeeded thus
far, and might have ended by realizing their ambitious dream, had it
not been for the interposition of circumstance which misled them in
their choice of opportunity.
Thus latter-day Germany furnishes a remarkable instance of the
remoulding of a whole nation by a dynasty. For the people has, in
truth, in some essential respects been born anew. The centre of its
ethico-spiritual system has been shifted, and if it had a chance
of gaining the upper hand Europe would be confronted with the most
appalling danger that ever yet threatened. Morality, once cultivated
by Germans with religious fervour, has become the handmaid of
politics, truth is subservient to expediency, honour the menial of the
regiment. Between the present and the past yawns an abyss. The country
of Leibnitz, of Kant, of Herder, and of Goethe was marked off by
fundamental differences from the Germany of to-day. The nation’s ideas
have undergone since then an amazing transformation, which is only now
unfolding itself in some of its concrete manifestations to the gaze of
the easy-going politicians of this country. So, too, have the ethical
principles by which the means of pursuing the ideals were formerly
sifted and chosen. The place once occupied by a spiritual force, by
the conscience of the nation and the individual, is now usurped by a
tyrannical system devised by a military caste for a countless army.
And this system has been idealized and popularized by visionaries and
poets, professors, and even ministers of religion whose spiritual
nature has been warped from childhood. To-day there is no counter-force
in the land. Jesuitism, as the most virulent Calvinists depict it at
its worst, was a salutary influence when compared with this monstrous
product of savagery, attired in military uniform and the wrappages of
civilization, and enlisted in the service of rank immorality.
What could afford our normally constituted people a clearer insight
into the warped moral sense of the Prussianized German people than
the remarkable appeal recently made by the “salt of the Fatherland,”
German theologians and clergymen, to “Evangelical Christians abroad,”
setting forth the true causes of the present iniquitous war?[1] These
men of God preface their fervent appeal by announcing to Evangelical
Christians the lamentable fact that “a systematic network of lies,
controlling the international telegraph service, is endeavouring in
other lands to cast upon our people and its Government the guilt for
the outbreak of this war, and has dared to dispute the inner right of
us and our Emperor _to invoke the assistance of God_.... Her ideal
was peaceful work. She has contributed a worthy share to the cultural
wealth of the modern world. She has not dreamed of depriving others of
light and air. She desired to thrust no one from his place. In friendly
competition with other peoples she has developed the gifts which God
had given her. Her industry brought her rich fruit. She won also a
modest share in the task of colonization in the primitive world, and
was exerting herself to offer her contribution to the remoulding of
Eastern Asia. She has left no one, who is willing to see the truth, in
doubt as to her peaceful disposition. _Only under the compulsion to
repel a wanton attack_ has she now drawn the sword.”
These heralds of peace and Christian love appear to have been so
immersed in their heavenly mission that they have not had time to
peruse such unevangelical works as the writings of Treitschke,
Clausewitz, Maurenbrecher, Nietzsche, Delbrück, Rohrbach, Schmoller,
Bernhardi. And yet these are the evangelists of the present generation
of Germans. Whether the innocence of the dove or the wisdom of the
serpent is answerable for this failure of the Evangelical Germans to
face the facts is immaterial. The main point is that first the German
professors published their justification of this revolting crime
against humanity; then came the anathema hurled against the allies by
German authors, who pledged themselves never again to translate into
the language of God’s chosen people the works of any French, English,
or Russian man of letters; these were succeeded by the Socialists,
who readily discovered chapter and verse in the Gospel of Marx for
the catastrophic action of the Government they were wont to curse,
and exhorted their Italian comrades to espouse the Kaiser’s cause
against the allies; and now the rear of this solemn procession of the
nation’s teachers is brought up by their spiritual guides and pastors,
who publicly proclaim that their Divine Master may fully be implored
to help his German worshippers to slay so many Russians, British, and
French Christians that they may bring this war to an end by dictating
the terms of peace, and firmly establishing the reign of militarism in
Europe. That is the only meaning of the summary condemnation of those
who have “dared to dispute the inner right of us and our Emperor to
invoke the assistance of God.”
If this be Evangelical Christianity as taught in latter-day Germany,
many Christians throughout the world, even among those who have scant
sympathy with Rome, will turn with a feeling of relief to the decree
of the new Pope enjoining prayers for the soldiers who are heroically
risking their lives in the field, but forbidding the faithful to
dictate to the Almighty the side to which he shall accord the final
victory.
As historians, this body of divines have one eye bandaged, and read
with the other only the trumped-up case for their own Kaiser and
countrymen. They write:
“As our Government was exerting itself to localize the justifiable
vengeance for an abominable royal murder, and to avoid the outbreak of
war between two neighbouring Great Powers, one of them, whilst invoking
the mediation of our Emperor, proceeded (in spite of its pledged word)
to threaten our frontiers, and compelled us to protect our land from
being ravaged by Asiatic barbarism. Then our adversaries were joined
also by those who by blood and history and faith are our brothers, with
whom we felt ourselves in the common world-task more closely bound
than with almost any nation. Over against a world in arms we recognize
clearly that we have to defend our existence, our individuality, our
culture, and our honour.” From the theological standpoint, then,
Germany is engaged in a purely defensive war against nations guilty of
breaking their pledged word, and of wantonly attacking the peace-loving
Teutons.
Nobody can read without a grim smile this misleading exposé which
ignores the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, with its forty-eight hours’
term for an answer; the exasperating demands which were drafted, not
for the purpose of being accepted by the Belgrade Government, but with
the admitted object of provoking a refusal; the fervent insistence with
which the British Foreign Minister besought the German Government to
obtain an extension of the time from their Austrian ally; the mockery
of a pretence at mediation made by the Kaiser and his Chancellor, and
their refusal to fall in with Sir Edward Grey’s proposal to summon a
conference and secure full satisfaction and effectual guarantees for
Austria; and the German ultimatum, presented to Russia and to France
at the very moment when the Vienna Government had “finally yielded” to
Russia’s demands and “had good hopes of a peaceful issue.”[2] Those
were essential factors in the origins of the war. Yet of these data
the spiritual shepherds of the German people have nothing to say. They
pass them over in silence. For they are labouring to establish in the
minds of Evangelical Christians abroad their “inner right” to invoke
the assistance of God for the Kaiser, who patronizes Him. This unctuous
blending of Teutonic religion with the apology of systematic inhumanity
reminds one of an attempt to improve the abominable smell of assafœtida
with a sprinkling of eau-de-Cologne.
These comments are nowise intended as a reproach to the theologians and
pastors who have set their names to this appeal. Personally, I venture
to think that they have acted most conscientiously in the matter,
just as did von Treitschke, Bernhardi, and their colleagues and their
followers. The only point that I would like to make clear is that they
have a warped ethical sense--what the schoolmen were wont to term “a
false conscience.” And the greater the scrupulosity with which they act
in accordance with its promptings, the more cheerfully and abominably
do they sin against the conscience of the human race.
The simplicity and unction with which these men come forward to
vindicate their “inner right” to pray God to help their Kaiser to
victory over pacific peoples, the calm matter-of-fact way in which they
accuse the Belgians of revolting barbarities--for that is one of their
main contentions--and justify the Kaiser’s lordly contempt of the scrap
of paper, are of a piece with every manifestation of the political
cult which has become one of Germany’s holiest possessions. And it is
because the British nation as a whole obstinately refused to listen to
those who apprised them of this elemental movement, and of the dangers
it concealed, that they dispensed with a large land army, slackened
the work of shipbuilding, and trusted to a treaty which they are now
surprised to see dealt with as a mere scrap of paper.
In like manner the British people at first smiled sceptically at the
narratives of Belgians who witnessed and described the killing of
unarmed men, women, and children, the finishing of the wounded on the
battlefield, the living shields of women and girls with which they
protected their soldiers, the taking and shooting of hostages, and
other crimes against humanity. After all, it was argued, the Germans
are not quite so unlike ourselves as these stories would have us
believe. They, too, are men who have left wives, sisters, mothers, and
children at home, and the wells of human pity are not dried up within
them. They are incapable of such savagery. Those tales evidently belong
to the usual class of fiction which sprouts up on all battlefields.
Yet, whatever the truth might be--and since the fiendish passions of
the soldiery were let loose against Louvain, Malines, and Rheims we
know that some of the narratives were based on gruesome facts--the
ground at first taken up was untenable. Nobody possessing even a
superficial acquaintance with Prussian history had grounds for
asserting that the German army was incapable of such diabolical deeds.
Its recorded doings in seasons of peace demonstrated its temper. That
the officers and the rank and file are obedient to their commanders
will not be gainsaid. To their Kaiser they are, if possible, still more
slavishly submissive. Well, the Kaiser, when his punitive expedition
was setting out for China, addressed them thus: “When you encounter the
enemy you will defeat him. _No quarter shall be given, no prisoners
shall be taken._ Let all who fall into your hands be at your mercy.
Just as the Huns a thousand years ago, under the leadership of Etzel
(Attila), gained a reputation in virtue of which they still live in
historical tradition, so may the name of Germany become known in
such a manner in China that no Chinaman will ever again even dare to
look askance at a German.” The monarch who gave utterance to those
winged words was not conscious of saying aught that might shock or
surprise his people. His false conscience felt no qualms. The principle
underlying this behest was the foundation-stone of Prussian culture.
And the Kaiser’s wish is now realized. The name of Germany, whose love
of wanton destruction, delight in human torture, and breach of every
principle of manly and soldierly honour are now become proverbial, will
henceforward be bracketed in history together with that of the Huns.
How British people who read and stigmatized these barbarous behests,
emphatically issued by the supreme ruler of the German nation and
the supreme head of the German Church, should have held him who
uttered or the troops that executed them incapable of the crimes
laid to their charge in Belgium is a mystery. Terrorism in occupied
countries has always been part of the Prussian method of waging war.
It is such an excellent substitute for numbers! The examples of it
given in the years 1814 and 1815 are still remembered. Since then it
has been intensified. During the Boxer movement in China I witnessed
illustrations of it which burned themselves in my memory. The tamest
of all was when the German troops arrived in Tientsin. The nights were
cool just then, and a knot of soldiers were dismayed at the prospect
of spending a night without blankets. I happened to know where there
was an untenanted house with a supply of blankets, and out of sheer
kindness I took them to it. With a smile of gratitude the officer
in command set the blankets on one side. Every portable article of
value was next seized and appropriated. And then the soldiers took to
smashing vases, statues, mirrors, the piano, and other articles of
furniture. They laughed at my remonstrances, and reminded me of the
Kaiser’s orders. All at once they abandoned the spoil, and rushed down
to the courtyard to shoot some Chinese who were said to be there. As
luck would have it, however, the newcomers were their own comrades, so
there were no executions that first evening. But the Kaiser’s men made
up for it later.
Germany’s necessity, as defined by her War Lord or any of her high
officials, knows no law. Stipulations and treaties are for non-German
States, which must be held strictly to their obligations. To Teutons
the Treaty of Bucharest and the neutrality of Belgium were meaningless
terms. But only to Teutons. The Japanese are to be made to respect the
neutrality of China. For the chosen people are a law unto themselves.
That is, and has long been, the orthodox doctrine of the Pan-German
Church. What more natural than its application to the treaty of 1839,
which Bismarck confirmed in writing in the year 1870, and which the
Kaiser and Herr von Bethmann Hollweg, with the hearty approval of the
whole articulate German nation, have recently spoken of contemptuously
as a scrap of paper? If any doubt could be entertained as to the extent
to which this German theory of morality has spread, it will have been
dispelled by the body of eminent German theologians who have just
issued their appeal to Evangelical Christians abroad. They, at any
rate, have no fears that their eloquent appeal will be treated as a
mere scrap of paper. It is the word of their “good old God.”
CHAPTER I
THE CAREFULLY LAID SCHEME
Europe’s tremendous tragedy, the opening scenes of which are now
unfolding themselves to horrified humanity, is no ordinary conflict
arising out of a diplomatic quarrel which timely concessions and soft
words might have settled with finality. In its present issues it is the
result of a carefully laid scheme of which the leaders of the German
people are the playwrights and the Kaiser the chief actor. It was
cleverly thought out and patiently prepared. The manifold forces let
loose by the Berlin Government for the purpose of leading up to a _coup
de théâtre_ which involves the existence of cultured Europe had long
since got beyond the control even of those who were employing them. All
that was still possible was the choice of the moment for ringing up the
curtain and striking the first fell blow. And, sooth to say, judging
by the data in the hands of the Berlin Foreign Office, no conjuncture
could have been more propitious to Germany’s designs than the present.
For circumstance had realized most of the desired conditions, and the
Kaiser, without hesitating, availed himself of his good fortune. It is
useless to dissemble the fact that the copious information accumulated
in the Wilhelmstrasse warranted the belief that there could not have
been a more auspicious moment for the realization of the first part
of the Kaiser’s programme than the present. If Germany be indeed set
apart by Providence as the people chosen to rule Europe and sway the
world, the outcome of the present conflict should be to sanction this
inscrutable decree of Fate. Certainly the hour has struck for which
she has been waiting and keeping her powder dry during the past forty
years. It is now or never.
Of this ingeniously conceived scheme the Achilles tendon was its
diplomatic aspect. And here Prussian clumsiness asserted itself
irrepressibly, as is its wont. A worse case with which to go before
the world than that of Germany in the present struggle it would be
hard to imagine. She has deliberately brought about a crude, naked
might-struggle, in which war-lust and brute force are pitted against
the most sacred and imprescriptible rights that lie at the very roots
of organized society. And she calls on God to help her to effect her
purpose.
The British nation is loath to think evil of its neighbours. It
generously credits them with the best--or at any rate the least
wicked--motives, and, even when the evidence on the other side is
overwhelming, gives them the benefit of the doubt. How strong the
evidence was in this case I pointed out over and over again. In 1911,
for instance, I wrote: “Since Europeanism was killed at Sedan and
buried at Frankfurt-on-the-Main, over forty years ago, international
treaties have been steadily losing their binding force. Their
significance has been gradually transformed into that of historic
souvenirs, symbolizing a given political conjuncture. To-day they
are nothing more. The unique, solid foundation of peace that remains
is readiness on the part of the peace Powers to defend it on the
battlefield.”
Optimists in this country objected that the German people and their
Chancellor were peacefully disposed, and utterly averse to letting
loose the horrors of an unparalleled war. And I replied that even if in
a certain sense the optimists were right, the attitude of the German
nation was beside the question. Nobody ever wants war, but only the
spoils it brings. “Germany,” I explained, “having spent fabulous sums
of money and human labour in creating an army greater in numbers and
more formidable than that of any of her rivals, would consider the
military superiority which this weapon bestows upon her as a title-deed
to property belonging to her competitors. She would, accordingly,
demand a return for her outlay, would call for the neighbour’s
territory she coveted, and expect to receive it as a propitiatory
sacrifice. War would not be her main object, but only the fruits of
war, extorted by threats which are more than mere words. She would
virtually say to France, Belgium, or Holland, ‘I have it in my power
to take what I want from you, and to ruin you over and above. But I
trust I may receive amicably from your sagacity what I should be forced
to wrest violently from your shortsightedness.’ That is at bottom a
modified form of the line of action pursued by the bandit barons of
mediæval Germany, a robust survival into the twentieth century.” And it
is exactly what has since happened. The White Paper tells the story of
the German Kaiser’s attempt to induce our Government to connive at the
seizure of France’s colonies, which Germany needed for her enterprising
people.
But although for years I and some few others had been preaching the
imminence of this danger which no diplomatic arguments could exorcize,
the bulk of the British nation hoped on, refusing to impute to the
German people the motives or the aims which we knew it entertained.
In the _Contemporary Review_[3] I was attacked by the celebrated
Professor Hans Delbrück for affirming, as I have done for over twenty
years, that Germany was concentrating all her efforts on the coming
struggle between herself and this country, and the learned Professor
did me the honour to say that so long as I was allowed to express my
views on foreign politics in the _Contemporary Review_ there would and
could be no entente between Great Britain and Germany. “As long as Mr.
Dillon is permitted,” this German Professor and successor of Treitschke
wrote, “to set forth in the _Contemporary Review_ his fantastic views,
engendered by hatred and suspicion, about German policy, all those will
be working in vain who believe that peace between our nations can be
secured by arbitration treaties.”[4] I then summed up my opinions as
follows:
When I read the smooth-tongued, plausible panegyrics on Germany’s
politics, which are served up to us here in England every year, and
contrast them with the systematic aggressiveness which everybody
with open eyes and ears sees and hears in Berlin, I behold Germany
rise before me in the form of a cuttlefish, with many lasso-like
arms, ever ready to seize their unsuspecting prey, and also ready,
when itself is in danger, to shed an ink-like fluid which blackens
the water and hinders effective pursuit.
Everything that has come to pass since then offers a pointed
illustration of that presentment. The attempt to obtain without a war
a return for her outlay on her army and navy by calling for coveted
territory as a propitiatory sacrifice was energetically made during
the Morocco crisis. But the spring of the Panther failed of its
purpose. Germany’s further experiences during the London Conference
were likewise discouraging. The loose ranks of the Entente Powers
closed up at the approach of herself and her ally, and Albania proved
a mere torso. Then the supreme effort was put forth a few weeks
back, and the Berlin Government, alive to the possibility of a like
unfruitful result, determined to abide by and prepare for the extreme
consequences, which, sooth to say, appeared to them less formidable
than they really were.
Congruously with this resolve every precautionary measure that
prudence prompted or circumstance suggested was adopted betimes, some
secret, others public.
For the behoof of the European public the former were flatly denied,
and the latter glibly explained away.
Method characterized all these preparations, towards which the British
nation was particularly indulgent. Foremost among them was the increase
of the German army and the levy of the non-recurring war-tax. Now,
if Russia had had recourse to a measure of this kind, all Europe
would have clamoured for explanations. Germany was allowed to have
her way unquestioned. _Honi soit qui mal y pense._ And yet the German
Chancellor dropped a hint of his real purpose which ought to have
been sufficient to put Europe on its guard. He spoke of the coming
conflict between the Teutons and the Slavs. And in truth that was
the keynote to the situation. In Russia it was heard and understood.
Whether it was also taken to heart and adequately acted upon there is
another matter. In these islands most people listened, smiled, and went
their way unheeding. Yet this was the first step towards tackling the
Entente Powers one by one, which constituted the alpha and omega of the
Kaiser’s policy.
Another of the timely precautions taken by Germany, who was resolved
to make ready for every contingency, however improbable--and a general
European war seemed even to her statesmen most improbable--was the
purchase of horses. She despatched agents to Great Britain, and
especially to Ireland, in search of mounts suitable for cavalry
service, and also draught-horses. And during the months of March,
April, and May large numbers of these animals were exported from the
four provinces of Ireland to Hamburg without exciting protest or
occasioning comment. For the British are a trusting people. And now the
French army is obliged to make an effort to acquire a fresh supply of
mounts, and may encounter very serious difficulties. Corn was also laid
in, and heavy shipments of it went to Hamburg for the troops.
The German banking manœuvres were begun later. Enormous sums of gold
were garnered in by German financial institutions through their
influential agents in England, of whom several enjoyed the friendship,
but, one hopes, not the confidence, of some of our eminent public
men. And even since the war began large batches of cheques and bills
endorsed to London bankers by financial houses of Sweden, Denmark,
Holland, Portugal, Italy, have been forwarded to London for discount
and collection. Indeed, Germany appears to have been paying for
foodstuffs drawn from these neutral countries in cheques and bills
which, strange to say, were still being discounted here. For in this
respect, too, the British are a trusting people. Even mobilization
would seem to have been commenced secretly long before the crisis had
become acute. We learn from the newspaper press that among the papers
found on a captured German general is a service letter disciplining
him for not immediately answering an order for mobilization dated July
10th, when no one outside of Germany had a suspicion that war was
impending. This date enables us to gauge the sincerity of the Kaiser’s
efforts to “moderate” Austria’s “impetuosity.”
Whoever wishes to have an inkling of Germany’s method of opening
the diplomatic chess-game which preceded the war, and was intended
to “localize” it as far as seemed conducive to her interests, must
endeavour to get a glimpse of the action of the smaller hidden wheels
within the wheels of official diplomacy. For the Berlin Foreign
Office worked on various lines, keeping official, semi-official, and
absolutely secret agents, diplomatic and journalistic, hard at work
all the time. Thus in Russia there was the titular Ambassador, Count
Pourtalès, over whose head the Military Ambassador, a German officer
who had access to the Tsar, and was kept posted about everything that
was going on in Russia, was wont to despatch messages direct to the
Kaiser. And this personage was better informed of what was being done,
neglected, and planned by the Russian Government than some of the
Russian Secretaries of State. He had direct access to the highest
society, and indirect to every local institution in the Empire. To my
knowledge, this German Aide-de-Camp in the suite of the Russian Emperor
despatched detailed reports about the intrigues which were spun to oust
the present War Minister, Sukhomlinoff, from his post, and have the
Assistant War Minister appointed in his place. And I am able to add
a piquant detail: in one of these reports he assured his chief that
although the Assistant Minister, Polivanoff, is in his opinion the
better man, his appointment at the then conjuncture would throw things
military out of gear for a considerable time in Russia. But the Tsar
was not to be tempted. General Sukhomlinoff, who is undoubtedly the
right man in the right place, remained at his post.
It is hardly an exaggeration to say that Russia had no secrets whatever
from the agents, diplomatic and military, of the German Government.
Every intrigue that was woven, every scheme that was laid before the
various State departments in Petrograd, every casual remark dropped by
the Tsar in the intimacy of private life to a courtier, every real or
supposed weakness in the Imperial defences, was carefully reported,
with all the local anecdotic embroidery, and duly taken cognizance
of in Berlin. Among high officials there were some who, without evil
intent, but solely in virtue of what they honestly but foolishly
regarded as the privilege of private friendship, were wont to unburden
themselves of momentous State secrets to certain representatives of
the Empire with which Russia is now at war. These representatives were
made aware of the advice tendered to the Tsar by his Majesty’s trusted
advisers in various critical emergencies, and they announced it to
their chiefs, the Tsar’s present enemies. There was, for instance, a
few years ago, one influential Russian statesman without whose assent
the Government would undertake nothing of real importance, a patriot
whose leanings towards Austria and Germany were natural and frankly
proclaimed. In the interests of his country, which he identified
with the triumph of his own particular party, this Russian laid bare
many matters to the Austrian Ambassador, then Baron Aehrenthal, who,
being himself an Austrian of the same political school of thought,
warmly sympathized with his friend, and also took due note of his
friend’s confidences. That, it is asserted, was the main source of
Aehrenthal’s spirited policy. He believed he knew Russia’s weak points,
and relied on their handicapping the diplomacy of the Tsar. And then
his countrymen ascribed to military weakness the concessions which the
Russian Government made for the sake of European peace.
I can affirm that certain State documents, which I could, if necessary,
describe, were in this way conveyed to the future enemy, and that one
of these, together with all the facts and figures adduced therein
as proofs, contributed materially to Germany’s decision to present
her ultimatum to Russia, by convincing her that that Empire would not
venture to take up the challenge. I make this statement with first-hand
knowledge. Thus Russian ingenuousness and candour have played their
part--certainly a material part--in bringing down a frightful calamity
on that nation.
European and Asiatic Russia is positively weevilled with Germans. Most
of the foreign trade there is carried on through the intermediary of
German agents, almost every one of whom is in touch with the German
Consulate of the provincial chief town. In the railway administration,
too, there were numerous public servants, some of whom, by education,
tradition, religion, language, and sympathy, are as German as
Herr Bassermann or Admiral von Tirpitz. And all these channels of
information were so many tributaries of the great stream which flowed
unceasingly between the Singers’ Bridge and the Wilhelmstrasse.
For in the Berlin War Office they were informed of three matters
of supreme moment, which weighed heavy in the scales when war and
peace trembled in the balance. First, that the vaunted Russian gold
reserve had been immobilized, and was therefore not available for
war; second, that the army was unready; and third, that the Tsar, for
dynastic reasons, would on no account embark on another war. In the
Wilhelmstrasse and in the German War Office reports had been received
setting forth in detail that the Russian land forces had been uniformly
neglected in the interests of a short-sighted economy, and that the
wear and tear of the army during the Japanese campaign had never been
made good, could not, indeed, be made good without an enormous outlay,
whereas only a few paltry million roubles had been spent on current
needs in lieu of the milliards without which reorganization was not
feasible. Russia, therefore, was not to be feared. And this inference
was duly communicated to the German Ambassador in Vienna, M. von
Tschirschky, who worked really hard and successfully to bring about the
present conflict, without, however, foreseeing its extent.
The other documents turned upon Russian finances. But the burden of
their message was the same. The line of reasoning and the sequence of
allegations was this: Russia’s gold reserve was indeed large, but had
been spirited away. For the State Bank had lent out vast sums to the
private banks, most of which are financed by German institutions. And
these loans had been given, not, as in France and Berlin, for a maximum
term of two months, but for six, eight, twelve, fourteen months. The
private banks in turn, thirsty for profits, had distributed the money
thus borrowed among private individuals, who employed it in wild
speculation. And the result was that the gold reserve in Russia could
not be made liquid in time should hostilities break out this year;
consequently a war in the year 1914 would entail a financial crash of
unconceived dimensions. As for the Russian money deposited in Berlin,
it, too, was locked up there, and would be commandeered by the German
Government were Russia to be forced into an armed conflict. The shock
which this revelation is supposed to have given the Tsar was also
described for the benefit of the Wilhelmstrasse. And the revelation
itself constituted another of the elements which decided Germany to
cross the Rubicon.
In France the Germans were nearly as much at home as in Russia, one
marked difference being that a larger percentage of State secrets there
was to be found in the newspapers. But whatever the periodical prints
failed to divulge was ascertained without difficulty and reported
without delay. It is a curious fact, but it is a fact, that Germans had
ready access to almost every man of mark in the Republic, and statesmen
there who would hum and haw before receiving well-known Russian or
British publicists were prepared to admit them on the recommendation
of Germans and Austrians who made no secret of their nationality. I
heard this statement in Paris, and naturally hesitated to credit it.
But as it was worth verifying, I verified it. And this is what I found.
Some eminent men in Paris had refused to see a certain public man of
European note, some on the ground that they were too busy just then,
others because it was against their custom. The foreigner was advised
to renew his application at once, but through a private individual,
a citizen of one of the Powers now at war with the Republic. And he
did. The result was amazing. Within three days the doors of them all
were thrown open to him. But the quintessence of the irony lies in one
piquant detail: one of these French statesmen said to the intermediary
who is now inveighing against France and the French: “Let me see.
Is not that friend of yours a contributor to a periodical which is
strongly pro-German? If so, I had rather not meet him at all.” “By no
means,” was the answer. “He is very anglophile, and, of course, a great
friend of France.” “Ah, very well then, he can come.”