(This should be read with a map of Asia and Pacific Ocean.)
In spite of Oriental exclusiveness, now broken down, the Asiatic trade
has always formed a large element in the commerce of the world, and has
long been sought by the great maritime powers of Europe, especially by
England. For this she conquered India, and seized upon many islands of
the ocean. For this she battered in the gates of China, and established
herself permanently at Hong Kong, at the entrance to the River of
Canton.
[Sidenote: Majority of the human race in the countries of the Pacific.]
[Sidenote: Change in the currents of trade.]
In these countries, and upon these islands, live more than half the
human race, and with all the barbarism of some, and the old-fashioned
civilization of even the best, the large majority of these people are
producers of a multitude of articles wanted by the civilized world. And
of late these peoples have become possessed with a strange desire to
avail themselves of the products of European and American art. This
market will not only grow rapidly in its demands, but the currents of
trade will be diverted from Europe to America. In fact, the settlement
of the west coast of America inaugurated a revolution greater than that
which substituted the voyage around the Cape of Good Hope for the camel
train across the Asiatic continent. It gave America a standpoint from
which she would ultimately wrest the bulk of the vast trade of the
Orient from Europe. The cutting of the Suez Canal mended the hold of
England and other maritime European states on the Oriental market, in
fact secured for them the advantage of a shorter line to the Southern
Asiatic market as far as the Malay Peninsula; but as for the rest of
that great market included in the Pacific Islands, the Chinese Empire,
Japan and Siberia, the revolutionary movement has commenced, whereby the
bulk of that trade will be taken from England and Holland by the
merchants of San Francisco and Puget Sound.
[Sidenote: The China trade.]
The trade of China alone has been estimated at $130,000,000 per annum,
the greater part of which is absorbed by England, and the annual value
of the export and import trade of England with the Pacific Islands has
been put at $75,000,000. This already immense market may and will be
enlarged, especially in China, by means of railroad and steamboat
connections, which will bring to the coast the products of the interior
sections. Much of the China trade now goes overland into and through
India, and also through Siberia, to be consumed by the way, or pushed
through to the termini of European railroads and ship-lines which are
reaching to get it. And, as the transportation becomes better, so will
the production increase. Railroad building, until lately forbidden in
China, has now commenced, and will, in the nature of the case, go on
rapidly. The result will be to bring most of the trade to the Pacific
coast, and thus reverse all the interior movements.
Even the capital of the Empire, the great Peking, and the productive
region around it, have depended largely on the overland trade to Europe,
and especially on the great Russian market opened annually at Novgorod.
It only needs a railroad from the back country, through Peking direct to
the coast, to bring this large trade under American control. Mr. James
G. Swan (Hawaiian Consul) has written a valuable pamphlet on the regions
drained by the Amoor River, in which he shows that there is an immense
trade "now lying dormant in Siberia, Mongolia, Manchooria, Northern
China, Corea and Japan, which will be brought into active life and
diverted to the American shore of the North Pacific Ocean by the great
continental railroads which will have the outlet of their commerce
through the Straits of Fuca."
He gives the population of these countries as follows:
Siberia 4,000,000
Mongolia 12,000,000
Manchooria 5,000,000
Japan 36,000,000
----------
Total 57,000,000
[Sidenote: The trade of the Amoor River, Japan, etc.]
The Amoor River, with its great Chinese tributary, the Songaree,
furnishes over 2,600 miles of steamboat navigation (a second
Mississippi), but, owing to a great bend to the south, the Amoor can be
reached by a short line of railroad from the Russian port Vladivostock,
or Poisette Harbor. Japan lies on the way from Puget Sound to the region
referred to. Major Collins, some years ago, said in a letter to
Secretary Marcy concerning this market: "One item, cotton fabrics, might
be introduced to the amount of millions yearly; then there are many
products of these countries that could be received in exchange. This
must be done through the Amoor and its affluents. It can hardly be
estimated what a revolution in trade and commerce can be effected in
this region; and the fondness of the people for luxuries and foreign
merchandise being very great, if the means of procuring them were
facilitated and the prices cheapened, the consumption would be immense,
and in a few years a trade of many millions would be effected."
Major Collins thought that these people would consume annually five
dollars per head of American goods; Mr. Swan estimates two dollars per
head. These goods would be paid for in silks, tea, rice, furs, skins,
wax, fossil ivory, plumbago, tin, precious stones, naval stores, etc.
It is said that the overland trade of North China to Russia now requires
for its transportation a caravan line of 36,000 camels and bullocks, and
100,000 horses, and that the Siberian trade is as large as that of
China. The tea sold at Novgorod amounts to $5,000,000 each annual fair.
The caravan tea is preferred to the ship tea, which is said to be
injured by the voyage through the tropics; another argument for the
North American route.
[Sidenote: The new railroad across Siberia to St. Petersburg.]
Since Mr. Swan's pamphlet, the news comes that the Russian Government is
now actively engaged in building a railroad from St. Petersburg across
Siberia to Vladivostock on the Japan Sea; and the expectation is general
that this imperial power will seize Corea so as to bring the terminus of
her railroad to Ninsen at the south point of Corea. All the great trade
which will thus be developed is in addition to the existing trade of
China and the Islands, and will probably swell the China, Japan and
Russian trade to over $200,000,000, to which is to be added the
Australian and Island trade, which already is, no doubt, over
$100,000,000.
Now comes the practical question, Who are to handle this vast trade of
$300,000,000 annually?
[Sidenote: The American Pacific States have decisive advantages over
all others in controlling the Pacific trade.]
No one nation exclusively, of course. The Dutch and other small powers
will have a little of it; but the only contest will be between England
and the American Pacific Coast. England has the lion's share now, but
this great nation will hereafter labor under too many disadvantages in
its contest with America. America has the needful capital, material,
pluck and energy, and enjoys certain decisive advantages, as, for
example--1. In distance, which of itself would in this case decide the
matter; 2. In the local production of certain staple articles which will
be in great demand, and which England cannot supply so cheaply, if at
all, such as lumber, meats, flour, canned goods, cheap cottons, and
agricultural and other machinery, which, if not cheaper, can be more
readily adapted to the wants of the market; 3. In possessing the back
country of Eastern America, whereby the entire United States become
tributary both ways to the Pacific commerce; to which may be added, 4.
The ever-flowing river in the Pacific Ocean, flowing in a circle from
Japan to the American coast and back--the famous Kuro Shiwo, or Japanese
current; a current which gives a gain to every ship of twenty miles a
day in distance; the current which brings the disabled Japanese junks to
the American coast.
[Sidenote: Advantage in distances.]
The half-way point on the Pacific side between America and England is
the Malay Peninsula. This leaves even Australia and all of Oceanica
nearer to us than to England, and all of China, Japan and Siberia
thousands of miles nearer to us. Hong Kong and Canton are the English
headquarters in China, and yet our Pacific coast is 5,000 miles nearer
to these than England is. It is also 6,500 miles nearer to Shanghai,
which is a more important port than Canton, because of its greater
nearness to the rice and tea producing sections. The advantages are
still greater in respect to Peking, Japan, Vladivostock, the terminus of
the projected Russian railway, and the entire country drained by the
Amoor. Our commerce is now within thirty days of the coast of China, and
will be in less than ten days when the fast mail and express and
passenger steamers are launched. I insert a table of distances, which is
full of significance.